This interesting analysis examines how luck and skill influence rankings across diverse domains, including chess, basketball, soccer, video games, and human/animal societies. Makes me think about which games I’m playing now.

“In a game like chess that has no element of randomness, an infinitely good player may indeed win every time. In a game of pure luck like roulette, on the other hand, both players have equal probability of winning, regardless of skill.”

Luck, skill, and depth of competition in games and social hierarchies by Jerdee & Newman, 2024, Science Advances

The Spectrum

The paper analyzes the spectrum between pure skill games (chess) and pure luck games (roulette), and how the depth of competition affects outcomes. Some key insights:

  1. Skill matters more in deeper competitive fields - When you’re competing against better opponents, skill differences become more pronounced
  2. Luck can dominate in shallow competitions - In less competitive fields, random variation can overwhelm skill differences
  3. The mix varies by domain - Different activities have different balances of luck and skill